BNEF: Data Center Gas Plants Could Add 152 Mt CO2e, 10% of Power Emissions

BloombergNEF (BNEF) said on Nov. 11, 2026 that if every announced on-site gas plant for US data centers were built, the plants would emit about 345 million metric tons of CO2-equivalent a year, 152 million tons more than grid power for the same load, or 10% of 2025 US power-sector emissions.

The figures come from BNEF's report "Powering the Data Center Boom: How Grid Policy Can Deliver Clean Power Faster", commissioned by Bloomberg Philanthropies. BNEF has tracked 181 GW of announced gas-fired generation proposed alongside data centers, more than 90% of it in the US, and calls the pipeline an indication of potential scale, not a forecast of what will be built.

Why this is 10%, not the 20% reported in August

This is a new BNEF report, not a revision of an earlier one. The 20% figure came from a Bloomberg News analysis of Aug. 18, 2026, carried by Fortune. It took 99 proposed plants and 126 GW tracked by BNEF and put their emissions at about 318 million tons of CO2 a year at industry-standard rates. Against the roughly 1,485 million tons the US power industry emitted in 2025, per Energy Information Administration data cited there, that was about 20%, and as much as a third if the plants ran flat out.

The two numbers measure different things. August counted gross plant emissions on 126 GW. November counts only the increase over supplying the same data centers from the average US grid, on a pool that Poland Insight's walkthrough of the report puts at 165 GW in the US. On Voltgrid's arithmetic, 152 million tons is about 10% of 1,485 million tons and the gross 345 million tons about 23%, so the studies are broadly consistent. BNEF's release does not state its denominator.

What BNEF assumed

Poland Insight reports that the 345 million ton figure assumes 60% utilization, as a scenario and not a forecast, and that grid supply for the same data centers would emit about 193 million tons. The project list was compiled with Global Energy Monitor as of Oct. 5, 2026. Per Poland Insight, about 85 GW is dated 2026 to 2029, 12 GW is dated 2030 or 2031, and 84 GW has no commissioning date.

BNEF warns that plants built as a bridge to a grid connection may keep running. Poland Insight reports a marginal generation cost of about $21 to $43 per MWh against US industrial electricity prices of $82.1 to $93.3 per MWh, so a plant could burn gas for two or three decades. BNEF calls this a fossil-fuel lock-in risk beyond the annual emissions.

What it means for supply

BNEF says grid constraints in the US and Europe delay large-load connections, which pushes developers toward on-site gas. Its head of data centers, Mark Daly, said the climate outcome depends on how quickly grids connect the facilities and whether cleaner generation is added alongside them. Voltgrid News reported earlier on SpaceX's Starbase data center and the $24 billion gas plant tax break it seeks.

Turbines are the other limit. Poland Insight reports that BNEF found announced investment that could lift annual turbine capacity from 67 GW in 2025 to 102 GW in 2030, and that US gas supply constraints could begin in 2028. Voltgrid also reported that used gas turbines sell for $1.5 million to $1.7 million per MW as new ones slip to 2031.

What is not confirmed yet

The full report is available to BNEF clients on bnef.com and was not read for this story. Bloomberg's and Quartz's Nov. 11 articles could not be read either (Bloomberg is paywalled), so the figures come from BNEF's press release, Poland Insight and, for August, Fortune. Utilization, grid baseline and the plant count behind 345 million tons are known here only through Poland Insight. BNEF also finds that where grids rely heavily on coal, grid-connected data centers can emit more than gas-powered ones, so the 10% is a US result.