Nebius Q3 Earnings: Revenue $980.8M, 2026 Capex Guide ~$27B

Nebius Group N.V. reported third-quarter 2026 earnings on 12 November, with revenue of $980.8 million, up 571% from a year earlier and 68% from the second quarter, but said full-year revenue will land at the low end of its $3.0-3.4 billion range.

The company said in its results release and shareholder letter that some third-party capacity it expected to switch on this year is now scheduled for the first half of 2027, and that the contracts behind that capacity remain in place. Adjusted EBITDA was $465.8 million, against a loss of $5.2 million a year earlier, and the full-year adjusted EBITDA margin guidance of about 40% is unchanged. About $325 million of the quarter's revenue was non-recurring income from the first phase of an asset-light model, in which partners deploy Nebius's cloud platform on capacity they fund.

2026 Capex Guidance and the Q4 Revenue Math

Capital spending is the second change. Nebius now expects about $27 billion of capex in 2026, up from its earlier $20-25 billion range, as it builds capacity for 2027, in particular at sites it owns. Reuters reported that analysts, on LSEG data, had expected about $22 billion. For 2027 the company gave a first outlook of $40-45 billion of capex and $12-13 billion of revenue, with pre-tax breakeven in the fourth quarter of 2027.

The scope of these capex figures needs care. The release's cash-flow table shows $7,300.4 million of purchases of property, equipment and intangible assets in the third quarter and $15,430.7 million for the nine months, a cash measure. Nebius does not say whether the $27 billion guidance is measured the same way or includes finance leases. If it were on the cash basis, our arithmetic puts the fourth quarter at roughly $11.6 billion.

The same arithmetic on revenue shows what "low end" means: $3.0 billion less the $1,962.1 million booked in nine months leaves about $1.04 billion for the fourth quarter, about 6% above the third quarter's $980.8 million, which included the $325 million one-off.

Contracted Power and Delayed Colocation Capacity

Nebius said it has more than 4 GW of contracted power and still expects 5 GW by the end of 2026. Recent additions include a 300 MW expansion in Missouri, taking that site to 1.1 GW under contract, a 50 MW colocation in South Carolina and two colocations in India, both due in 2027. The company also expects to bring online more than 1 GW of new capacity each year.

The delay is concentrated in colocation. In New Jersey, Nebius expects to have delivered more than half of the capacity contracted with Microsoft by the end of 2026, with the remaining tranches now due in the second quarter of 2027. It said the site's operator began retiring temporary generation ahead of the move to permanent power, and that Bloom Energy fuel cells, the main power source, are online and being scaled. Missouri, Lappeenranta in Finland, a second Mäntsälä site and Alabama are due to add capacity in 2027, more than 3 GW at full scale over 3 to 3.5 years.

Prepayments, ARR and Funding

Annualized run-rate revenue (ARR) was $6.4 billion at the end of September, against $3.0 billion at the end of June. Nebius had guided to $7-9 billion by December; it now expects ARR above $7 billion in February, a shift of about two months, and says it will stop guiding on ARR from 2027.

Prepayments are the funding story. Voltgrid News reported earlier on Nebius's Citi financing facility. The company said prepayments on Q3 deals covered more than 100% of the associated capex, up from 50-60% in Q2, and expects $10 billion of committed customer prepayments in 2026 and $17-20 billion in 2027. It expects prepayments plus asset-backed financing to cover 75-85% of 2027 capex. Cash and equivalents were $7.4 billion at quarter-end.

What Is Not Confirmed Yet

The 2027 figures are an initial outlook, not a commitment. Nebius has not said how the 2026 capex guidance is defined, and the delayed New Jersey tranches depend on the permanent power connection. Nebius's 6-K for the results was not yet on SEC EDGAR when this was written, so the figures here come from the company's own release and letter, cross-checked against the Reuters report.